Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Boston rumination: What's in a poll?

A new poll (http://www.pollster.com/…rimary.php) conducted Feb. 2-3 produced a 56-39 spread in favor of Hillary Clinton, and 58-37 for Romney over McCain (http://www.pollster.com/…imary.php).

This survey was one day shorter than the poll I posted yesterday, which showed Obama barely up with 46% to Clinton's 44%, and a 50-37 spread for Romney.

These wild fluctuations (that's a 12-point variation in Clinton's ratings) look just like those in the run-up to New Hampshire. This blogger thinks only one conclusion is safe this afternoon in Massachusetts: nothing is predictable.

Clinton has led solidly here until very recently, when the Kennedy and Kerry endorsements came in and Deval Patrick kicked his efforts into high gear. Obama may well have not had the time to make his good first impression stick with voters -- at least long enough to get them out to the polls.

Boston's dismal weather matches the mood of the city following the Super Bowl downer -- yet even in victorious New York City, the coincidence of the Giants' parade and Super Tuesday may spell doom for Obama's hopes in the Empire State. (see http://www.nypost.com/…499248.htm)

Here in Boston, Obama is certainly the talk of the town. But Clinton has soldiered on quietly, as evidenced by the ubiquity of her campaign signs. (I've only seen one Obama poster so far today.) Hers could be the quiet revolution, hardier and more subtle than the polls can sniff out -- just like in New Hampshire.

Mobile post sent by mdr using Utterz. Replies.

No comments: